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Fears that the H1N1 swine flu will turn into a "superbug" this year may be unfounded, say researchers at the University of Maryland.
In laboratory tests, the virus responsible for the swine flu pandemic did not take a virulent turn when combined with other strains of seasonal flu. But it did spread more rapidly than the other viruses, confirming the need for swine flu vaccinations, the researchers said.
The researchers exposed ferrets to three different viruses, the H1N1 swine flu and two seasonal strains of flu. The H1N1 strain dominated the others, reproducing by about twice as much, the researchers reported online in the journal PLoS Currents. "The H1N1 pandemic virus has a clear biological advantage over the two main seasonal flu strains and all the makings of a virus fully adapted to humans," Daniel Perez, the lead researcher and program director of the University of Maryland-based Prevention and Control of Avian Influenza Coordinated Agricultural Project, said in a Sept. 1 university news release.
"I'm not surprised to find that the pandemic virus is more infectious, simply because it's new, so hosts haven't had a chance to build immunity yet. Meanwhile, the older strains encounter resistance from hosts' immunity to them," Perez added.
In the lab tests, after being infected with the new swine flu virus and one of the more familiar seasonal viruses (H3N2), some of the ferrets developed intestinal illness in addition to respiratory symptoms. The researchers hope further studies will determine if this type of co-infection and multiple symptoms are behind some of the deaths caused by the new pandemic virus.
Also, the swine flu virus caused infections deeper in the ferrets' respiratory system than the H1 and H3 seasonal viruses, which remained in the nasal passages.
"Our findings underscore the need for vaccinating against the pandemic flu virus this season," Perez said. "The findings of this study are preliminary, but the far greater communicability of the pandemic virus serves as a clearly blinking warning light."
Perez's team used samples of the H1N1 pandemic variety from last spring's initial outbreak of swine flu. They believe theirs is the first study to look at how swine flu interacts with seasonal flu viruses.
Another hopeful sign that the swine flu pandemic might be milder than predicted came last month from two infectious-disease experts at the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.
Drs. David Morens and Jeffery Taubenberger challenged the notion that a mild flu in the spring can herald a more severe resurgence in the fall, a theory that has some scientists predicting a potentially dangerous swine flu resurgence this fall.
"Pandemic history suggests that changes neither in transmissibility nor in pathogenicity are inevitable," concluded Morens and Taubenberger in an article published in the Aug. 12 issue of the Journal of the American Medical Association.
Looking at the 1918-19 Spanish flu, which is thought to have killed 20 million to 40 million people worldwide, the researchers said the course of that illness varied greatly globally. They found no proof that it began in the spring with a less severe wave of infection and became more lethal through the summer as it picked up mutations.
They also studied 14 major flu epidemics dating to the 16th century and found no evidence supporting the "herald waves" theory.
Overall, "examination of past pandemics reveals a great diversity of severity," they said. "Some newer evidence [is] casting doubt on original herald wave theories."
Shares of Medarex Inc (MEDX.O) rose as much as 22 percent Monday on a Mayo Clinic report that two prostate cancer patients became cancer-free after being treated with the company's experimental drug, ipilimumab, in combination with other therapies and surgery.
On Friday, the Mayo Clinic said both patients experienced reduction in levels of a protein called PSA, or prostate specific antigen, and tumor shrinkage after receiving one dose of ipilimumab, which allowed them to be treated with surgery.
The two patients had tumors that were considered inoperable at diagnosis, the Mayo Clinic said.
Patients in the mid-stage study were being treated with ipilimumab in combination with hormone treatment and radiation therapy. "It is really the headline itself of these dramatic responses irrespective of the patient number that is driving the stock at this point," Merriman Curhan Ford analyst Joseph Pantginis said.
The Mayo Clinic published the report about the study in its online research magazine, Discovery's Edge.
"Certain caution is warranted... It is very different from a publication in a peer review medical journal, which usually goes through critical review by other experts," BMO Capital Markets analyst Jason Zhang said.
"Both patients received hormonal therapy. Although hormonal therapy typically does not yield this type of response, one can't exclude the possibility that the therapy has contributed to the outcome," Zhang added.
Ipilimumab is an antibody that is being developed by the company with Bristol-Myers Squibb Co (BMY.N) and is in trials for melanoma, lung cancer and prostate cancer.
"We think the melanoma is the lead product and the big value driver. The news today shows the potential activity of ipilimumab," Needham & Co analyst Mark Monane said.
"But to get real college credit, they have to do it with more than two patients. It is 108 patient trial and it is ongoing and we look forward to hearing those results," Monane added.
Medarex and Bristol-Myers recently initiated a late-stage trial with ipilimumab for prostate cancer. For the mid-stage study conducted by Mayo Clinic, Medarex provided the drug and supported safety monitoring during the protocol.
Shares of Medarex were up more than 17 percent at $8.65 Monday afternoon on Nasdaq. They had touched a high of $9.01 earlier in the session. Shares of Bristol-Myers were down little more than 1 percent at $20.30 on New York Stock Exchange.
Reconstructed the origin of H1N1 through its genome analysis performed on 50 samples of virus collected in Mexico and in US: H1N1 is not similar to the other swine viruses but is composed of an assortment of gene segments of other flue viruses comes "by far". The news has been given in an anticipation of a Science magazine article to be published next week.
The genetic analysis of H1N1 was conducted by Rebecca Garten of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and in collaboration with the World Health Organization WHO. The analysis revealed that H1N1 does not like its closest relatives swine flue virus. This means that its genes have moved unnoticed for a very extended period of time suggesting that in future pig farms should be monitored to better monitor and predict the emergence of new flue viruses.
Experts have discovered that all eight gene segments that make up the genome of the virus H1N1 form together a combination of new genomic never reported so far no virus in pig and human flue: these eight segments instead have originated in an avian host and then have begun to circulate in pigs on several occasions between 1918 and 1998.
Six of the genetic segments have moved to North America starting in 1998 and are the result of an assembly of genes of human, porcine, avian flue. The other two segments are derived from Eurasian swine flue virus.
The fact that the genome of this new flue is so different from swine flue viruses of his relatives indicates that genes that ultimately led to the mosaic H1N1 were in circulation, completely unnoticed, for a long time.
More than 100,000 Americans probably have the flu -- and at least half of these cases are H1N1 swine flu, a CDC expert estimates. The comment came from Daniel Jernigan, MD, PhD, deputy director of the CDC's influenza division, during a news conference.
Jernigan noted that the 4,700 confirmed or probable cases of swine flu reported to CDC represent a gross underestimate. When asked how many actual cases there were, Jernigan noted that 7% to 10% of the U.S. population -- up to 30 million people -- get the seasonal flu each year.
"So with the amount of activity we are seeing now, it is a little hard to know what that means in terms of making an estimate now of the total number of people with flu out in the community," Jernigan said. "But if I had to make an estimate, I would say ... probably upwards of maybe 100,000." The CDC's most recent data, for the week ending May 9, shows that about half of Americans with confirmed flu had the H1N1 swine flu. If Jernigan's off-the-cuff estimate is correct, more than 50,000 people in the U.S. have the new flu.
At a time when flu season should be ending or over, the CDC's flu season indicators are going up instead of down. As of May 9, 22 states had widespread or regional flu.
Meanwhile, Arizona's Maricopa County -- home to Phoenix -- reported that a woman in her late 40s died from complications of the H1N1 swine flu. She is the nation's fourth H1N1 swine flu fatality. The woman had an underlying lung disease, according to the Maricopa County public health department.
Despite the death, the CDC's marker for flu severity -- deaths from pneumonia or flu -- did not increase beyond normal levels for this time of year. This so-called "epidemic threshold" is 7.4% of all deaths; for the week ending May 9, flu/pneumonia deaths were 7.2% of all deaths.
One of the most alarming signs of a flu pandemic is a lot of severe illness in people who don't usually suffer severe flu cases -- older children and young adults.
Most of the 173 people hospitalized in the U.S. with H1N1 swine flu have been between 5-24 years old.
"At this point, we're not seeing the seriousness of illness in the United States that was initially reported in Mexico, but this certainly does not mean that the outbreak is over," Jernigan said. "The H1N1 virus is not going away. We know that the outbreak is not localized but is spreading and appears to be expanding throughout the United States. source: WebMD
